Mayoral election could be tight two-horse race, new poll says

A new poll for the Mayor of Greater Lincolnshire election suggests a tight two-horse race.

A YouGov poll published last week put Reform UK’s Dame Andrea Jenkyns in front by a distance – 15 percentage points.

But a new poll by a different organisation predicts the vote will come down to the wire as it stands.

More In Common polled more than a thousand Lincolnshire residents between April 15 and 21

Dame Andrea remains the frontrunner, with 33 per cent of the vote.

But hot on her heels – and within the poll’s margin of error to actually be in first place – is the Conservative candidate Rob Waltham.

Labour’s Jason Stockwood polled the best of the rest, at 17 per cent.

The overall poll figures are: Reform UK – Dame Andrea Jenkyns, 33%, Conservative Party – Rob Waltham, 30%, Labour Party – Jason Stockwood, 17%, Lincolnshire Independents – Marianne Overton, 8%, Green Party – Sally Anne Horscroft, 7%, Liberal Democrats – Trevor Young, 6%.

The polling is weighted according to factors including education level, age and sex, along with 2024 General Election vote.

It also takes into account likelihood of voting.

Before a push for ‘don’t knows’ to make up their mind is applied, 23% polled did not know how they would vote, suggesting it is all to play for.

Lincolnshire Independents’ Marianne Overton appears to currently benefit the most from lean votes of ‘don’t know’, when pushed to choose.

More In Common also ran a focus group and polled Lincolnshire voters on their top issues in the mayoral campaign, and view of the Labour Government’s handling of the Scunthorpe steelworks crisis.

Healthcare and the NHS ranked as voters’ most important issue, with 34% choosing it.

This was closely followed by the cost of living (33 per cent), while immigration came joint third with roads and potholes (24% each).

Generally, Lincolnshire voters approved of the Government’s handling of the steelworks situation and 40% felt it had been handled very well or quite well, to 24% who thought it had been handled quite badly to very badly.

Meanwhile, More In Common’s focus group work highlighted a strong level of political disillusionment and frustration with the status quo.

“I’ve actually given up on the system, if I’m being totally open and honest with you,” stated Gary, a sales manager from the Boston area.

The public were also asked if they approved of certain political parties and figures, and their local council.

Reform UK had the best approval rating, of -1, closely followed by a -2 rating voters had for their local council.

The Conservative Party had an approval rating of -26 and Labour -39.