Poll says Reform will win mayor race, but youngsters are going Green and Remainers back Labour
Reform UK candidate Andrea Jenkyns has a strong lead in the Greater Lincolnshire mayoral race, according to a new poll.
YouGov found that 40 per cent of voters who had made their minds up intended to support her, compared to 25 per cent for Conservative candidate Rob Waltham.
Labour’s Jason Stockwood trailed on 15 per cent, with the Green, Independent and Liberal Democrat all polling under 10 per cent.
The survey of 1,218 Lincolnshire adults, conducted earlier this month, gives Ms Jenkyns a strong lead with less than a week to go until polling day (Thursday, May 1).
The figures reveal that she is pulling nearly a third of all voters who opted for Conservatives in the 2024 General Election.
She performs most strongly amongst over 50s, while Green candidate Sally Horscroft wins the 18–24 year old bracket.
Reform also wins voters who supported Leave in the Brexit referendum, while Labour comes out ahead in those who chose Remain.
According the poll, Ms Jenkyns is the preferred choice for both men (46 per cent) and women (33 per cent).
Of all the people surveyed, 22 per cent said they hadn’t made up their minds yet, while another 21 per cent said they would not vote.
The YouGov survey also predicts a Reform victory on the other side of the Humber in Hull, with boxer Luke Campbell having a significant lead.
The full list of candidates for Greater Lincolnshire Mayor (in alphabetical order) are: Sally Horscroft (Green), Andrea Jenkyns, Reform), Marianne Overton (Independent), Jason Stockwood (Labour), Rob Waltham (Conservative), Trevor Young (Liberal Democrat).
The new devolved authority will unite Lincolnshire County Council, North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire Council for the first time.
The mayor would get a budget of £24m for the next 30 years, along with expanded powers on transport, investment and housing from Westminster.
The election results will be announced in the early hours of Friday morning.
