The potential outcomes for Lincolnshire’s unpredictable county council power struggle

When voters go to the polls in May, the race for control of Lincolnshire County Council is likely to be one of the most unpredictable in years.

Conservatives have dominated the county for decades, having the same leader for more than 20 years.

However, Reform UK is hoping for a strong showing following the high-profile launch of their campaign featuring party leader Nigel Farage.

Labour will be hoping that the anti-Tory sentiment hasn’t worn off since their landslide General Election victory last year, which saw them claim the Lincoln MP seat back.

Meanwhile, Liberal Democrats and Independents managed to seize control of three district councils in the last round of elections in 2023, and could make progress on the county level.

What is certain is that this will be an important election.

The winners will have a loud voice in the debate over what replaces the council in the government’s shake-up, and how Lincolnshire’s politics look for years to come.

Here are the various ways the election could play out.

The Conservatives keep a majority

The Conservatives currently have a very healthy majority of 53 out of 70 seats.

This means they could lose 18 in May’s elections and still be able to control the chamber.

Since the county council was formed in 1974, there have only been four years when the leader’s chair hasn’t been occupied by a Conservative.

Current leader Martin Hill, who has been in charge for 20 years, has said he will stay in the top job if that’s what his colleagues want.

“Staying on as leader isn’t my decision – it will be down to the electorate and my Conservative colleagues,” he said.

Reform UK takes a majority

Another possible scenario is a landslide for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party, who will be contesting all 70 seats.

They currently have three councillors who have defected from other parties.

They would need to keep these and win at least 32 more in order to get a working majority.

The party plans to elect a Lincolnshire leader once the dust has settled after the election.

When he launched the party’s campaign at the Lincolnshire Showground recently, Farage said taking the council wasn’t out of the question.

“This has been such safe Conservative territory. Six months ago you would have said I was a dreamer – that it’s not possible. But we will see,” he said.

“It’s not a long shot we win that either – maybe a short shot.”

A rainbow coalition

Other parties – including Labour, Liberal Democrats and various Independent groups – currently hold 13 of the county seats, with one vacant.

It would be a surprise if any of these parties managed to take control on their own, but it’s more feasible for them to make the maths work if they band together.

Councillor Phil Dilks (Ind) is the current leader of the opposition.

There’s precedent in Lincolnshire for politicians putting aside their differences to form anti-Tory coalitions.

In South Kesteven, several Independents joined a coalition to take control of the council in 2023 with the backing of Liberal Democrats and Greens, locking the Conservatives out of power.

A Conservative deal

After all the votes are counted, it may be that no party has the seats to control the council by itself.

In this scenario, the largest party could wheel and deal to find a partner. They will need to find enough votes to elect a chairman of the council.

Should the Conservatives come first and Reform second, the smaller party may agree to supply votes either on a formal or informal basis.

In exchange, they could be rewarded with committee chairs or influence over council business that they wouldn’t have in the opposition.

Nigel Farage has sent mixed messages on this, at one point saying local Reform councillors could form coalitions with Tories where needed, and at other points saying they had ‘no intentions’ of a partnership.

The final election results may change that point of view.

A minority administration

If the winner is a whisker away from having control of the council – say 33 or 34 seats – they might choose to go it alone.

In this case, they would rely on picking up enough floating votes to pass each piece of their agenda.

Councillors who offer those final few votes may be able to wield significant influence in getting their way – or they may simply not want to see the council fall into chaos.

Liberal Democrats in West Lindsey run this type of administration, with the regular backing of an Independent member.