Voters ‘shouldn’t be surprised’ if turnout for mayor and county elections are low

It’s being described as one of the most consequential election days in Lincolnshire’s history — but will the public be interested enough to head to the polls and have their say?

On Thursday, May 1, voters across Greater Lincolnshire will have the opportunity to elect the area’s first-ever mayor, who will lead the newly formed Greater Lincolnshire Combined County Authority.

On the same day, residents across Lincolnshire will also choose their next county councillor.

But with an additional layer of local government being added on top of Lincolnshire’s existing two-tier system — made up of district and county-level authorities — experts fear the public may become increasingly disengaged from local politics.

Prof Andrew Defty, from the University of Lincoln's politics department, believes turnout for the county council elections could fall somewhere between 36% — the turnout at the 2021 county elections — and 15.1%, which was recorded during the first-ever Police and Crime Commissioner elections across England and Wales in 2012.

He also believes the mayoral election could see lower turnout than the county council vote.

While those casting a ballot in the county elections are likely to vote for a mayor as well, the absence of county elections in North and North East Lincolnshire could, he says, 'depress turnout' in those areas.

“Historically, turnout in local elections in the UK is at a much lower level than General Elections,” he said.

“We shouldn’t be surprised if the turnout next week is low.”

Professor Defty also pointed out that turnout for last year’s General Election was 60%, representing a drop of more than seven percentage points since 2019 and marking the lowest turnout since 2001.

A total of 10 mayoral elections also took place on May 2, 2024, spanning London, Greater Manchester, Tees Valley, the East Midlands and the North East, with an average turnout of just 30% — down from 35% in 2021, when eight mayoral elections were held.

“The introduction of powerful mayors has not led to a significant trend in people heading to the polls to vote for them,” continued Professor Defty, who also noted that turnout for PCC elections has historically been low.

“Innovation in local government hasn’t led to an increase in turnout. I don’t think we can expect the combined authority election to buck that trend.”

He added: “There’s a really difficult job in terms of trying to explain what the new mayoral combined authority is, how it differs from the existing tiers of government, and why people should care.”

Although he acknowledged that whoever is elected mayor will have powers over economic development, skills, transport and planning, Professor Defty questioned how clearly that translates for the public.

“It’s not entirely clear to me how this system is going to work, and it’s also not clear how accountable it is to the public.”

He added: “Giving people the opportunity to vote is a good thing, but you have to explain why they are doing that."

Last month, a by-election was held for a Park ward seat on the City of Lincoln Council.

The Liberal Democrats ultimately took the seat, with candidate Sarah Jane Uldall securing 366 votes.

However, returning officer Angela Andrews confirmed that turnout for the election was just 15.72% – relatively low, considering the average turnout for a council by-election in the UK typically ranges from 20% to 40%, depending on the area and the issues at stake.

A spokesperson for the Electoral Commission confirmed that research suggests a decline in turnout at elections, for a wide range of reasons.

They said: "Elections are an opportunity for people to have a say on issues which are important to them.

"Residents in Lincolnshire have the opportunity to do just that at the upcoming local and mayoral elections on Thursday, May 1.

"Our research tells us there has been a decline in turn out at elections and that people have a range of reasons for not voting.

"Some people are unable to vote because of circumstances such as work or holidays; some people lack the confidence, knowledge or information to participate; and negative perceptions or a lack of interest in politics can also play a part.

“There is not a simple solution to increasing participation, but we believe it is crucial to provide high-quality education and information about elections, including tailored information for young people and other groups that are under-registered.

"We work to build people's understanding and confidence in democracy, and to ensure all voters have the information they need to take part in upcoming polls.”